Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, May 17th

Friday’s bond market has opened up slightly after giving up overnight gains. Stocks are looking to close the week on a negative note with the Dow down 57 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.37%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Thursday’s early levels.

1/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.39%

57


Dow


25,805

37


NASDAQ


7,860

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Negative


University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

There were two economic reports posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. One was a non-factor and the other had a bigger influence on rates than it usually does. The latter was May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment that came in at 102.4. This was well above forecasts and a large jump from April’s 97.2. It was also the strongest reading since 2004, indicating that consumers feel better about their own financial situations than they have in a long time. Since rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, this data is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. The size of the jump caused a larger reaction in bonds (erasing overnight gains) than we usually see.

Low


Neutral


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was the other. The LEI showed a 0.2% rise, meaning the indicators are predicting minor economic growth over the next several months. That matched forecasts and had no impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage pricing.

Medium


Unknown


None

Next week has a few relevant economic reports scheduled, mostly housing-related and one important manufacturing release. We also will get the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting, giving us insight into the thoughts of individual Fed members. The first report doesn’t come until Tuesday, so expect weekend news to drive trading as the new weeks begins. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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